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A study published Sept. 28 in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections with 12 pathogens accounted for about 2.3 million of the 20 million cancer cases diagnosed worldwide in 2024. Four pathogens—H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and Epstein-Barr virus—made up about 92% of infection-attributable cases, while many countries remain short of vaccination coverage targets.
A global analysis published Sept. 28 in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections with viruses, bacteria and parasites accounted for about 2.3 million cancer cases in 2024—roughly 12% of the 20 million cases diagnosed worldwide that year. The findings highlight the potential role of infection prevention, including vaccines against HPV and hepatitis B, while showing that the burden falls heavily on lower- and middle-income countries.
The researchers examined 12 cancer-associated pathogens, combining estimates from the Global Cancer Observatory’s GLOBOCAN database with published research on infections found in people with particular cancers. The analysis estimates how many cancer cases were attributable to those infections; it does not mean every person carrying one of the pathogens will develop cancer.
Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of the infection-attributable cases. Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium that infects the digestive tract, was linked to an estimated 760,000 cases, mainly gastric cancers. HPV was linked to 750,000 cases, including cervical, penile, throat and mouth cancers. Hepatitis B accounted for 360,000 cases and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) for 260,000, with EBV associated with some throat cancers, lymphomas and stomach cancers.
The study’s estimates also point to a gap in prevention. The World Health Organization reports that 31% of eligible adolescent girls worldwide received at least one HPV vaccine dose in 2024, far below its 90% target. The analysis found that low- and middle-income countries bore 77% of infection-driven cancers; about 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries.
Prevention Could Reduce Some Cancers
The estimates matter because a substantial share of the cases studied are linked to infections that can be prevented or treated, though the analysis does not measure how many cancers a particular vaccination campaign would prevent. HPV and hepatitis B vaccines are available and protect against infections associated with cancer. Wider access and timely vaccination could lower future infection-related cancer rates, but coverage and delivery remain uneven.
Dr. Prashant Mathur, director of India’s National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that infection prevention should sit alongside other cancer-control measures. He said that, combined with steps addressing tobacco, alcohol, diet, physical activity and environmental pollution, an estimated 50% to 60% of cancers in India may be avoidable. That figure concerns multiple risk factors and should not be read as an estimate of cancers prevented by vaccines alone.
The disparity between the share of infections and access to prevention also has practical consequences. Limited vaccine availability, costs, health-system capacity and missed follow-up can make it harder to reach populations at higher risk. The researchers’ figures describe a global burden, but do not by themselves identify which specific intervention would have the greatest effect in each country.
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Vaccines and Uneven Coverage
HPV vaccination is intended to prevent infections with cancer-causing strains of the virus. The source report says evidence from Australia, England and Finland has found no HPV-related cancers or deaths among young adults vaccinated by age 13 in the research cited by experts. Dr. Rebecca Perkins, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Tufts University School of Medicine who was not involved in the analysis, told Live Science that countries achieving vaccination rates above 80% are seeing signs that cervical cancer is beginning to decline. These observations support prevention, but do not mean the same results have already been reached everywhere.
Perkins said moving from a two-dose to a single-dose HPV schedule could make campaigns easier to deliver by reducing costs and the need to track people for follow-up; she noted that trials have supported the approach. In the United States, she said, uptake varies among states and some caregivers believe vaccination is unnecessary or can wait. The vaccine is recommended before likely exposure to HPV, which is why timing matters to public-health programs.
A hepatitis B vaccine is also available and can prevent infection linked to liver cancer. By contrast, there is no approved EBV vaccine. The source report notes that EBV infects up to 95% of people by adulthood, while most infected people do not develop an associated cancer. The analysis covers cancer cases attributed to the pathogens, not the overall frequency of infection.
“The biggest misconception from families is that the HPV vaccine is not needed or that it can wait.”
— Dr. Rebecca Perkins, Tufts University School of Medicine, speaking to Live Science
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Limits of the Global Estimates
The figures are estimates based on cancer registry data and published studies of infection prevalence, rather than a count of individual cases proven to have been caused by infection. The article does not provide country-by-country totals for all 12 pathogens or explain the uncertainty range around the global estimate. The exact number of attributable cases therefore remains an estimate, and differences in data quality may affect comparisons between countries.
The results also do not establish how many cases would be prevented by any single policy, or how quickly changes in vaccination coverage would affect cancer rates. The study’s 2024 figures are a snapshot, not a forecast. Most people infected with EBV do not develop related cancer, and the reasons some do are not resolved by this analysis. The source report also notes debate over U.S. hepatitis B vaccination policy but does not supply enough detail to assess the likely effect of the policy change.
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Coverage and Prevention in Focus
The next public-health test is whether countries can expand access to proven vaccines and reach people at the recommended ages. WHO’s cited HPV coverage figure—31% of eligible girls receiving at least one dose in 2024—provides a baseline against its 90% target. Lower-cost delivery options, including a single-dose HPV schedule where supported by health guidance, may help programs reach more people, but implementation and local recommendations will matter.
Researchers and health officials will also need improved cancer and infection data to track changes over time and compare prevention strategies. For EBV, the absence of an approved vaccine means research remains focused on whether one can be developed. The current analysis establishes the scale of infection-associated cancer estimates; it does not say when further progress or reductions in cases will occur.
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Key Questions
What does the study mean by one in eight cancer cases?
It estimates that infections with 12 pathogens accounted for about 2.3 million of 20 million cancer cases worldwide in 2024, or roughly 12%. This is a modeled estimate of attributable cases, not a claim that every infection leads to cancer.
Which infections accounted for most of the estimated cases?
H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and EBV together accounted for about 92% of the infection-attributable cancer cases in the analysis. H. pylori and HPV had the largest individual estimates, at about 760,000 and 750,000 cases, respectively.
Can vaccines prevent infection-related cancers?
Vaccines against HPV and hepatitis B can prevent infections associated with certain cancers. The study estimates the cancer burden linked to pathogens; it does not quantify how many cases a specific vaccination program would prevent.
Is there a vaccine for Epstein-Barr virus?
No approved EBV vaccine was reported in the source material. EBV is common, but most infected people do not develop a related cancer.
Where is the burden of infection-related cancer greatest?
The analysis found that low- and middle-income countries accounted for 77% of infection-driven cancers. About 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries, according to the report.
Source: fediverse
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